Gray zone conflicts: Redefining victory without combat
America’s adversaries are steadily advancing their interests without firing a shot.
Through coordinated campaigns of coercion, disinformation, economic leverage, cyber pressure, proxy activity, and legal manipulation, competitors such as China, Russia, and Iran are reshaping the strategic environment below the threshold of war.
This “gray zone” is not a prelude to conflict, it is the conflict where strategic advantage is either won or lost.
The U.S. may boast the world’s most capable military force, but today’s contests rely less on kinetic strength and more on influence: shaping perceptions, dictating tempo, and constraining adversary choices. Yet U.S. institutions are still optimized for episodic warfare, not continuous competition. The result is a strategic mismatch. Adversaries maneuver freely through ambiguity while the U.S. contends reactively.
The gray zone demands a new approach: one that views influence as a decisive maneuver element and treats narrative, legitimacy, and access as forms of positional power. CACI’s Positional Play Planning (PPP) is a campaign logic designed for modern competition. Rather than seeking decisive battles, PPP focuses on securing cognitive and systemic advantage, shaping perceptions early, and synchronizing actions across diplomatic, informational, economic, cyber, and physical domains.
Success requires integrated intelligence, purposeful influence operations, cross-domain maneuver, and a skilled cadre capable of operating in ambiguity. It also requires institutional change: clearer authorities, faster coordination, repeatable planning frameworks, and metrics that measure strategic effect, not just activity.
The next contest for global stability will not begin with military mobilization — it is unfolding now in less opaque settings. To prevail, the U.S. must adapt its mindset, tools, and institutions to compete effectively in the space between peace and war.
Read the full white paper to explore the frameworks, principles, and planning models shaping the future of irregular warfare.